Think About Aging
Aging. We’re all doing it. Yet most of us do not know much about growing older. Many of our ideas about what aging means are mainly projections – both fears and hopes – about our future selves. Why do we age? Were we always afraid to age? In a long-lived society, when does old age begin? On this web page we will explore what we need to know to think about our own aging.
Demographics of Aging
Should the Aging of Populations Alarm Us?
Driven by declining birth rates as well as rising life expectancies, the earth's population is older than it's ever been. “More than half of all the human beings who have ever lived beyond the age of 65 are alive today,” according to gerontologist Harry R. Moody. In fact, people 80 and over are the fastest growing age group in the world, their numbers increasing by nearly 4 percent per year.
Countries rich and poor, industrialized and agrarian, in every corner of the globe, are affected by this wave of longevity that has shattered stereotypes about aging, revealed inequalities between groups, and caused social planners to scratch their heads. The effects are felt almost everywhere.
Worldwide, 420 million people were 65 and older in 2000. By 2050, that number is expected to rise to 1.4 billion. This growing demographic shift may affect financial and health care resources, but it also presents the prospect of a whole new stage of life with profound social and political implications.
Worldwide, a variety of problems and solutions
Every country will experience the aging of its people differently. In Russia, for example, the total population is expected to decline by more than 18 million by 2030 at the same time that it grows older, which raises the question of how to pay for retirement pensions and health care as the pool of younger workers shrinks. About 25 percent of people in the European Union will be over 65 by 2030, but experts project small increases in population size there because of an influx of immigrants. In countries such as France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Finland, South Korea, Brazil and Greece, heated political battles are already being fought over efforts by politicians to trim pension benefits, raise the age at which they begin, and increase workers' contributions to financing their own pensions.
In Japan, where there have been shifts in traditional family patterns, many younger Japanese are not able to care for their aged family members. That has created a new market for robotics. Affluent Japanese can buy robots that will feed their elders or help caregivers lift them. They can also acquire wheelchairs that respond to voice commands or that will travel automatically to a preset outdoor destination, avoiding obstacles and stopping at red lights, en route. There are even car seats that slide right out of a car and turn into a wheelchair.
India, too, has a growing population of elders, and its traditionally strong family bonds have eroded somewhat as young people leave home to pursue jobs and lives elsewhere. In 2007, the Indian government considered controversial legislation that would require adult children to support their parents. Adult grandchildren could be forced to help, as well, and older people who had no children could claim support from anyone who was going to inherit their property. To receive a monthly allowance, elders would apply to a special tribunal, and people who refused to help older relatives could face up to a month in prison. Critics raised numerous objections, including the fact that many older people would be extremely reluctant to report their own children to the tribunal.
How an aging population may impact the U.S.
The number of Americans 65 or older will more than double by 2030 to 71 million people, 20 percent of the population. The number of Americans 80 or older will increase from 9.3 million to 19.5 million by 2030.
Experts predict that the Social Security program in the U.S. will run into problems in about 2041 unless reform measures are taken. As the boomers retire, the number of workers will shrink, and the taxes collected to pay for Social Security may only partially cover expected retirement benefits.
Despite this concern, the United States is in a relatively good position, compared to a number of other nations. The American retirement systems are robust and diverse and include company pensions and 401(k) savings plans as well as Social Security. The U.S. also has a somewhat higher fertility rate than some other countries do and an annual influx of 900,000 legal immigrants. As a consequence, by 2050 the American median age will have increased by just three years, to 39, whereas in Japan the median age in 2050 will be 53. (The median age is the point at which half the population is younger and half is older.)
Nevertheless, policymakers are concerned about several trends:
- Health care costs are likely to grow because of the increased number of people 65 and older. Already, the United States spends more per capita for health care for its elders than any other nation, upwards of $12,000 per person per year. The aging of the population is, however, only part of the reason why health care costs keep escalating.
- The cost of long-term care also keeps increasing. In the U.S., expenditures for home care and nursing homes doubled between 1990 and 2001 to about $132 billion a year. This trend could be mitigated if public health interventions can prevent disabilities so that more elders can live independently.
- The elderly support ratio is expected to shift. There will be fewer workers between the ages of 20 and 64, paying taxes to support a growing number of people 65 and older. This is a concern worldwide, but if older adults begin to delay retirement, that could make a significant difference.
Myths about health care costs for elders
There is a widespread perception that rapidly rising health care costs in the United States can largely be attributed to the aging of the population. This is one of seven myths identified in a report by the International Longevity Center-USA (ILC-USA) called "Myths of the High Medical Cost of Old Age and Dying." The truth is that the growing number of older people accounts for just a fraction of the increase in health care costs. Other factors have played a much larger role, such as expensive new medical technology and the growth in the whole population, not just in the group who are 65 or older.
According to another myth, limiting medical care for the very old at the end of life could save Medicare a substantial amount. The report notes that, even if doctors could reliably predict which elderly patients were about to die and withheld care from them, it would not reduce medical costs by very much.
A third myth warns that health care costs for our aging population will overwhelm and bankrupt the country. Actually, older Americans today are healthier than previous generations were, and the number who have chronic disabilities has decreased over the past 20 years. The ILC-USA report suggests that, with adequate research and careful policy development, we can avoid a financial crisis in health care.
To come back to the question this article started with: should the aging of world populations alarm us? It’s definitely not something to ignore, but for the U.S. it appears to be a manageable problem. With foresight, ingenuity, and political will, we should be able to avoid severe economic repercussions, especially if, in the process, we find new ways for older individuals to contribute to the community and thus make the most of their very long lives.
Resources
United Nations Statistics Division, world demographics
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm
Profiles of Older Americans, research reports by AARP
http://www.aarp.org/research/reference/statistics/aresearch-import-519.html
“The Elderly Population” by Frank B. Hobbs
http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/profile/95/24_ps.pdf
“Elderly Americans” by Christine L. Himes, Population Bulletin, 2001
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3761/is_200112/ai_n9018194/pg_1
"Myths of the High Medical Cost of Old Age and Dying," report by the International Longevity Center-USA
http://www.ilcusa.org/media/pdfs/Myths%20of%20High%20Medical%20Cost.pdf
